Only 8 different nations have hoisted the World Cup trophy since its inception in 1930. There aren’t too many surprises when it comes to the nations that make deep runs in the World Cup, and even fewer when it comes to the ones who have won it all. Here are the teams I consider the favorites to win it all, and for some fun, two teams I think are dark horses to make a deep run.
Dark Horses
Morocco
Coming off a semifinal appearance at the 2022 World Cup and an African Cup of Nations “victory”, they probably aren’t seen as much of a dark horse to people who follow football closely. But to the rest of the world, they are still relatively unknown as a footballing nation, and one that, to me, can be dangerous at this tournament.
They will lean on a solid defense led by superstar Achraf Hakimi. The addition of Issa Diop, who switched allegiances for this tournament, gives them the stability they would want next to Nayef Aguerd. The midfield lacks a bit of creativity but has good defensive structure and is very workmanlike.
Up front, they have a ton of good young attacking talent, led by Brahim Diaz. Up until missing the decisive penalty, he was having a fantastic AFCON and will need to be Morocco’s talisman once again. If they are able to find more consistent scoring, they are a team to watch.
Senegal
This was not on purpose, but my other dark horse in this tournament is the team that, on the field, beat Morocco in the AFCON final. A lot of the well-known names on this team are on the wrong side of 30, but I think they have a great mix of experience and young attacking talent.
The spine of this team—Edouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gana Gueye, and Sadio Mane—are all on the older side, but they have played for some of the biggest clubs in the world and have plenty left to give in this tournament. Mix in the young talents of El Hadji Diouf, Iliman Ndiaye, and Bara Sapoko Ndiaye, and you have a team that will be a tough out in this World Cup.
They did not have a great showing against the US in their friendly leading up to this tournament and will need to tighten up the back line. The X-factor for this team will be Nicolas Jackson at striker. Over the last two years, he has not been able to find any consistent scoring form. If that continues, this team may find themselves out in the group stage. But if they get the Villarreal version of Nicolas Jackson, combined with Sadio Mane and Ismaila Sarr up front, this team could be dangerous.
Favorites
England
Coming off a Euros final loss to Spain, England are considered one of the favorites in this tournament. They brought in a world-class manager in Thomas Tuchel, albeit one with no previous experience on the international stage. Of the favorites in this tournament, England, to me, is the most likely to be a huge disappointment.
The back line is solid, but in my eyes won’t be where this team wins or loses. The two factors for me will be chance creation from the midfield and Harry Kane. The omission of big-time attacking midfielders Cole Palmer and Phil Foden is surprising on the surface, but if you’ve watched both this year, they aren’t the same players they were 18 months ago. England will need Jude Bellingham to get back to his very best and Morgan Rogers to continue his excellent Premier League form.
The reason I think midfield chance creation is pivotal for England is that the wide players on this team are not convincing. Bukayo Saka is coming off a down season and a horrific Champions League performance. Anthony Gordon and Marcus Rashford will fight for the left-wing position, but neither is coming in with particularly great form.
The biggest reason for optimism for this team is the play of Harry Kane. He’s coming into this tournament on the back of a 61-goal season, by far the best output of his career. He also offers so much with his hold-up play and passing, but he needs someone else to step up and score goals. If Kane has a bad tournament, it’s hard to see England winning more than one knockout game. If he maintains his form, they could be dangerous.
Portugal
Coming off the devastating loss of Diogo Jota last summer, this Portugal team will have extra motivation coming into this tournament. Cristiano Ronaldo is suiting up for his astonishing sixth World Cup, but truthfully, he’s not what makes this team special.
What makes this team a favorite to me is that I believe they have the best midfield in the tournament. Led by reigning back-to-back Champions League winners João Neves and Vitinha, along with Premier League Player of the Year Bruno Fernandes, Portugal are loaded in the middle of the park. Bernardo Silva and Ruben Neves likely coming off the bench makes this, to me, the best and deepest midfield in the tournament.
If Portugal gets vintage Ronaldo, they could make a very deep run, but the lack of depth up front concerns me. Players like João Félix and Rafael Leão are coming off back-to-back down years. Could Nuno Mendes bombing down the left make up for it? The question marks around consistent goal scoring are why they are not my favorites to win.
Spain
The reigning European champions are, of course, one of the favorites to win this competition. Led by one of the best players in the world, Lamine Yamal, Spain comes in with a relatively unchanged team from 2024.
The only two major changes are the omissions of Dani Carvajal and Álvaro Morata. Outside of the veteran presence in the locker room, it wouldn’t have made much sense for either player to be called up. Ferran Torres has been in excellent form for Barcelona and will likely take the open striker position.
David Raya provides so much comfort between the sticks. Rodri and Pedri, although not in great form, are two of the best midfielders in the world. Two of the catalysts up front, Nico Williams and Dani Olmo, are also not having the best seasons, but their quality is undeniable.
Despite some of their main men not being in form, they are still considered a favorite in this tournament because of superstar Lamine Yamal. He burst onto the scene at the Euros and has not slowed down since, and he will be coming into this World Cup in fantastic form.
What stops them from being considered the favorite in my eyes is their defense. Marc Cucurella is a great fullback. At center back, Pau Cubarsí and Marc Pubill are good players, but both are still very young. Aymeric Laporte is a good center back, but he is now over 30 and plays in the Saudi Pro League. With David Raya behind them, they will be full of confidence, so regardless of the question marks at center back, I consider this team one of the favorites.
France
The 2018 World Cup champions come into this competition with a largely changed squad, but to me, it’s an even better one. From back to front, this is the most complete team coming to America.
Mike Maignan might be the one weakness of the team, and that’s saying something considering he’s still a top goalkeeper. They have four top-level center backs who have all played for big clubs and in huge matches. Jules Koundé is an upgrade at right back from 2018, and Theo Hernandez on the other flank is still top level, even though he decided to take the money from Saudi Arabia.
In midfield, you still have the experience of N’Golo Kanté, who was part of that 2018 squad and has won everything. He might not be able to move like he used to, but that is why they have more industrious midfielders around him who can make up for it.
The reason I believe France are the clear favorites is the embarrassment of riches they have in attack, even after the loss of Hugo Ekitike. Ousmane Dembélé is the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, and alongside him you have Michael Olise and Kylian Mbappé. All three are expected to be in the top 10 of the Ballon d’Or rankings this year. Off the bench, you have Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola, and Rayan Cherki. That’s better than a lot of countries’ starting front threes.
That type of firepower up front, along with experience and depth at all positions, is why I believe France are heavy favorites and will ultimately cakewalk to the World Cup.
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