Every NFL season brings a few surprise teams that outperform expectations. Sometimes it’s a young quarterback taking a big leap. Sometimes it’s a new coaching staff, key offseason additions, or simply better health after an injury-filled season. Whatever the reason, there’s always a handful of teams that look far better by December than they did on paper in the summer.
Here are five teams I believe have the best chance to surprise people during the 2026 NFL season and even become legitimate playoff contenders.
#5 Carolina Panthers
2025 Record: 8-9 (1st in NFC South)
It may seem odd to start with a team that won their division, but I still think this team is being overlooked and has even more room for improvement. They won the division at just 8-9, which speaks more to the weakness of the NFC South than to Carolina being a true contender last year too.
Let’s start with Bryce Young. Young has improved every season since entering the league. His touchdown passes have increased from 11 to 15 to 23 in each season. And more importantly, he simply looks far more comfortable commanding that offense. The Panthers were far from the best offense in the league, and the TD passes don’t necessarily jump off the screen, but you really like to see this growth from Young and I think he only keeps getting better. Remember he was a first overall pick. And when you are a QB selected first overall, you are probably going to a tough situation. So seeing improvement is the key, and his connection with second-year WR Tetairoa McMillan should only keep improving. McMillan topped 1,000 yards his rookie season and was by far Young’s favorite target.
The Panthers also made significant upgrades to their roster this offseason. Adding players like pass rusher Jaelan Phillips (please stay healthy), Devin Lloyd (first-team All-Pro LB), and OT Rasheed Walker. Unfortunately they got hit with an injury day one of camp when second-year linebacker Nic Scourton tore his ACL. A tough blow, but I still think we can see this team take a step forward.
The Panthers may have been fortunate to win the NFC South at just 8-9, but they definitely looked like they belonged once the playoffs started. They pushed the Rams to the limit in that Wild Card game, showing they were capable of competing with one of the NFC’s best teams.
The Panthers do have a brutal schedule this year (10th toughest) after winning the division or else I may have them even higher. Check out their October/November games (yikes). But if you are ever going to take that step into contender status, you’re gonna have to prove you can play with those contenders anyway. Here’s their chance. And I believe we will see the Panthers playing meaningful football in December again.
#4 Tennessee Titans
2025 Record: 3-14 (4th in AFC South)
The Titans finished 2025 with the fifth-worst scoring defense, allowing 28.1 points per game, and ranked among the league’s worst against the pass. The Titans saw this and greatly improved their secondary by adding CBs Alontae Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott. Taylor was viewed as the best free agent CB in this cycle, and Flott allowed just a 72.8 passer rating which ranked 11th among CBs in 2025. This duo will change the secondary immediately. In fact, Taylor is so confident he posted this on X regarding him and Flott:
But the signings didn’t stop there. The Titans also added versatile defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers. One of my favorite offseason additions. He has had 7 sacks in back to back seasons, and is effective in the run game as well. He will slide in nicely next to Jeffery Simmons on that line.
The Titans also made it a priority to improve Cam Ward’s receiving weapons. Last season TE Chig Okonkwo led the team in receiving yards with 560. Not who you want leading the team. But similar to the CB position, the Titans certainly addressed the WR room too. First by signing Wan’Dale Robinson in free agency. Then drafting Ohio State WR Carnell Tate with the fourth pick. Robinson and Tate instantly, and quite dramatically, improve that WR room in Tennessee.
We haven’t even talked about Cam Ward yet. Ward hasn’t proven he’s the guy just yet, but I do think he quietly had a nice rookie season given he joined a bad Titans team. He only threw 7 INTs, including only 1 in the last nine games. I think we see Ward take another step in year two, and boy will that new WR room help that cause. I may look back on this and sound really stupid, but IF Ward takes the leap I expect, this team can have legitimate playoff upside. Titans having the 8th easiest schedule contributes to this playoff upside.
#3 Washington Commanders
2025 Record: 5-12 (3rd in NFC East)
It was just 2024 we saw this team surprisingly make the NFC Championship game with rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Hopes were high entering 2025, and rightfully so. But 2025 wasn’t too kind to the Commanders, as they were injury riddled all year. Jayden Daniels missed ten games, Austin Ekeler was put on IR after just two games, Terry McLaurin missed seven games, and Marshon Lattimore missed the last eight games. Washington never really got the opportunity to build on its magical 2024 season because injuries derailed them. Especially on the offensive side.
The Commanders made a few offseason additions I really like too. I especially love drafting linebacker Sonny Styles from Ohio St. I expect Styles to be a cornerstone for this defense at middle linebacker for a long time. Then they added DE Odafe Oweh, RB Rachaad White, and the aforementioned former Titan TE Chig Okonkwo in free agency. None superstars, but solid additions nonetheless.
The Commanders had a tough schedule in 2025, which will now be more middle of the pack in terms of difficulty in 2026. I really think health just threw this team off in 2025. And it seems like a lot of people forgot about them because of that season. But I think we see the Commanders start heading in the right direction again and competing for a playoff spot with a healthy Jayden Daniels.
#2 New Orleans Saints
2025 Record: 6-11 (4th in NFC South)
My second favorite sleeper and my second team on this list from the NFC South. And there’s a reason I have the Saints two and the Panthers five. The schedule. The Saints have the second easiest schedule in the NFL for 2026 based on opponents’ win percentage from 2025.
The schedule certainly helps, but that’s not the only reason I like this team. It’s how this team looked down the stretch last season. Yes they finished 6-11, but they went 4-1 in their last five games. Two of those four wins were against divisional rivals Buccaneers and Panthers who were both fighting for the division at that time too. So they had more to play for and still both lost to the Saints. Rookie QB Tyler Shough really started to find his groove late as well. In fact in games Shough started, including a Seahawks game he barely played in that they lost, the Saints went 5-6.
It wasn’t just Tyler Shough’s first year either. Head coach Kellen Moore is only heading into year two as well and is one of the youngest coaches in the league. I think these two continue to improve together and have the Saints heading in the right direction.
The Saints also added RB Travis Etienne Jr., LG David Edwards, and TE Noah Fant who is a good run blocker at that position. Don’t be surprised at all to see the Saints fighting for the division crown in December.
#1 New York Giants
2025 Record: 4-13 (4th in NFC East)
There’s a lot to like about the Giants heading into 2026, but we have to start with John Harbaugh. The Giants didn’t simply hire a new head coach—they hired one of the most respected coaches in football and a future Hall of Famer. Last year the Giants went 1-7 in one-score games. Can a coach like John Harbaugh flip a few of those losses into wins? I think so. Harbaugh even brought along FB Patrick Ricard and TE Isaiah Likely from Baltimore with him as they signed with the Giants. In addition to the two Baltimore players, the Giants also added LB Tremaine Edmunds who should be a great veteran presence.
Then you have the exciting young offensive trio of Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, and Malik Nabers. Dart and Nabers barely even played together since Nabers suffered the torn ACL in Dart’s first start. There are concerns about Nabers’ knee after that injury, but he was spotted at camp right away and looked pretty good. So we’ll stay optimistic he’s ok. Dart enjoyed a great rookie year having 24 total TDs and just 5 INTs. The Giants even finished ranked 13th in offense while only winning 4 games. Just slide when you run, Jaxson!
Now if we turn to the other side of the ball, the Giants have two young and very promising pass rushers in Abdul Carter and the recently drafted Arvell Reese. If these two live up to their potential, watch out. And while they’re developing, the Giants also have Brian Burns who had 16.5 sacks last year. This can quickly become an elite pass rush group and one of the best in the league. So both the offense and defense should continue improving.
I actually would have liked the Giants to make a leap even before John Harbaugh signed on. Dallas and Philly will get all the attention right now, but I think their other two NFC East rivals should not be overlooked. The division may still be tough to win for the G-Men, but my prediction is we see the Giants take a Wild Card spot this year if they stay relatively healthy.
Predicting the NFL is never easy, and every season brings a few teams that nobody sees coming. I believe these five teams have what it takes to exceed expectations in 2026. I’m not saying all will make the playoffs, but don’t be surprised to see several playing meaningful football late in the season.
Which team do you think is the biggest sleeper heading into 2026?
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