The National Championship is here. After going 6–3 across my Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final Four leans, it’s time for one final breakdown to close out the tournament. Michigan and UConn both arrive here after outstanding seasons, and hopefully we get a great game to close this season out. Here are my thoughts and where I’m leaning heading into Monday night’s title game.
UConn
Guess who is back again? Here’s UConn playing in their third National Championship game in the last four seasons after knocking off Illinois in the Final Four. To make three title games in four seasons in a single-elimination tournament such as this is nothing short of remarkable. UConn won those first two championships, and with Dan Hurley leading the way, they will not be intimidated by this moment or matchup. They are a very experienced and well coached team.
One storyline worth watching is the health of guard Solo Ball, who suffered a foot sprain against Illinois but still logged 16 minutes in that game after suffering the injury. He was not listed on the availability report ahead of the game, which suggests he should be available. Though possibly not at full strength. Ball started all 38 games this season for the Huskies and averages 12.9 points per game.
If UConn wants to stay in this game, two things stand out to me. First, they need to slow the tempo and avoid letting Michigan turn this into a transition-heavy game. Make this a lower possession game for Michigan and trust your elite defense to get some stops. Do not try to run with Michigan and turn this into a fast-paced game. You will not run with them, and instead you will likely get ran right off the floor like Arizona.
Second, UConn needs to knock down perimeter shots. Michigan has elite size and rim protection, which will make scoring inside very difficult. This to me is the key of the game actually. If UConn has a cold shooting night, I think they get blown out. This is a team that loves to set screens and keep you in action defensively, and maybe those screens can open up some solid looks. UConn knocked down 12 threes against Illinois, who is another big team like Michigan. Alex Karaban is a combined 2/13 from three in the last two games against Duke and Illinois. He is going to need to shoot a lot better than that for UConn to have a chance in this one in what is Karaban’s final collegiate game. Well, at least we think. These days the NCAA may grant 5 more years of eligibility and he’ll play college ball till he’s 30.
But if those shots aren’t falling, it will probably be a very long night for the Huskies against a Michigan team that has overwhelmed opponents this entire tournament.
Michigan
Michigan is putting together one of the most dominant tournament runs we’ve seen in recent memory. They’ve scored 90+ points in every tournament game so far, and are winning by an average margin of 21.6 points.
The Final Four matchup against Arizona was expected to feel like a championship-level battle. Instead, we got a beatdown where Michigan took control very early and never looked back. What an absolute letdown from a fan perspective even though I picked Michigan to win in my Final Four blog. Thanks for nothing, Arizona.
UConn isn’t the only team with a starter injured. Yaxel Lendeborg is dealing with a sprained left ankle and sprained MCL ligament in his left knee. An MRI showed no structural damage, and coach Dusty May said he expects him to go. Lendeborg essentially added no doubt when he said if he can walk he will play. But similar to Ball for UConn, Lendeborg will likely not be full strength.
Even with Lendeborg banged up, Michigan’s depth and frontcourt size remain big advantages. Aday Mara had a 26-point performance against Arizona who have one of the best defenses in the country. Expect Mara to stay aggressive assuming Lendeborg will be at least slightly limited from his injuries.
Michigan’s ability to switch defensively also matches up well against UConn’s screen-heavy offense. And it’s not just the defense, as Michigan ranks in the top 10 in KenPom for both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’ve just been an all-around force this season. I mean, Elliot Cadeau committed six turnovers against Arizona and they still pummeled them. And I don’t anticipate another six turnover game from the Michigan guard.
After such a beatdown of a great team, one can expect Michigan to maybe get a little cocky. But I don’t at all. They are a very well coached team, and will have nothing but respect for UConn and Dan Hurley and what they have done for years. Look for Michigan to come out with that same intensity to try and cap this season off with the title.
Simply put, Michigan has looked the part all season, and I’m not going against them now.
My Pick
Lean: Michigan -7.5
I have a tremendous amount of respect for what UConn and Dan Hurley have built, especially with how consistently they’ve performed in March over the last several seasons. I also leaned UConn in both the Duke and Illinois matchups earlier in the tournament, mentioning their elite defense and experience as reasons.
But Michigan has been dominant from start to finish this year, and especially throughout this tournament run. After what we just saw them do against Arizona — a game many expected to be a toss-up — it’s hard to go against them now.
The number at Michigan -7.5 is large for a National Championship game against an experienced team like UConn, but I’m not going to overthink it at this stage. Michigan’s size, defense, transition offense, and current form have simply been too much for opponents to handle.
My lean here is Michigan -7.5 to close out what has already been an outstanding tournament run. Spreads may shift before tip-off tonight, but Michigan -7.5 is where I’m leaning heading into Monday night. This pick is for entertainment purposes only – sports betting involves risk, and this is just my personal opinion. Please wager responsibly.
Let’s see if Michigan can finish the run Monday night.
Sweet 16 + Elite 8 + Final Four leans: 6-3 so far
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