The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 matchups went 4-3 against the spread for me. Now it’s onto the Final Four. At this stage of the tournament the matchups only get tighter, and every possession feels bigger. We’ve got a great Final Four set up, and here are my thoughts and leans on both matchups heading into Saturday night.
2 UConn vs 3 Illinois
Lean: UConn +2.5
UConn is coming off that stunning win over Duke. Illinois handled Iowa behind a strong second-half performance to reach the Final Four. With the spread sitting around Illinois -2.5, this is the exact kind of tight matchup you expect at this stage.
Illinois has the best offense left in the field, and can put pressure on you in a hurry. Illinois PG Keaton Wagler has been one of the most dynamic offensive players in the country this season, and looks like he’ll be a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft. He’s averaging just under 18 ppg and shoots 40.7% from 3-point range as a true freshman. Illinois is back in the Final Four for the first time since 2005, and are still looking for their first title.
But what makes this matchup interesting is that UConn has one of the most reliable defensive units in the country, ranking near the top of KenPom in defensive efficiency. I think experience also matters here. And Dan Hurley has certainly been here before. UConn is now chasing its third national title in the last four seasons, and have consistently shown they’re comfortable playing in high-pressure environments. I mean, we just saw that epic comeback against Duke. Keeping their cool and fighting all the way back from down 19 in that game.
I expect a close game here, but I trust UConn’s defense to slow Illinois down just enough to keep this one tight – and possibly win it outright. I’ll lean the team with the strong defense and +2.5 points here. I trust defense this time of year, especially in games where the spread is this tight.
1 Arizona vs 1 Michigan
Lean: Michigan
I’m not saying whoever wins this matchup will definitely take home the title, but this truly feels like a National Championship game. Both teams have looked absolutely dominant on their way here and have faced virtually no scares en route to the Final Four.
All season Arizona has attacked opponents in the paint. Attacking the paint like that leads to free throws, and this Arizona team led the country in free throw attempts. That is the exact type of pressure that can wear a team down over the course of a game when you are just getting bullied in the paint.
It hasn’t mattered at all up to this point, but one weakness of Arizona is their lack of 3-point shooting. They rank near the bottom nationally in 3-point attempt rate, and have only made double digit 3-pointers in four games this season. Now Arizona is so damn good in the paint and on defense that this has not mattered and they still have dominated. But against another great team in Michigan this is worth noting. If Michigan can play with them inside, it may force Arizona to take and make a few outside shots to get going and open up the interior.
Junior guard Elliot Cadeau of Michigan had suffered an allergic reaction on Wednesday. However he did make it to Indianapolis later that same day. Great news for Michigan after that little scare, as Cadeau’s ability to control tempo and limit turnovers could be an important factor against this Arizona unit.
Michigan also has the size and interior defense to match up well physically. If Michigan can protect the rim without sending Arizona to the free throw line repeatedly, where Arizona feasts, that could decide the game.
Honestly I expect, and hope, for an incredible game here. It’s the matchup we all wanted, and let’s hope it delivers. But if I had to pick here, I’ll trust Michigan’s consistency on both ends of the floor. A big factor also being how Michigan can match Arizona physically in the paint. Michigan will need to do their best to limit the fouls though. Michigan is -1.5, but I would likely just sacrifice the bit of winnings and take them moneyline. Nothing worse than laying -1.5 and watching your team win by one.
At this stage of the tournament, you expect some of the best teams to be here. So there really aren’t any easy matchups left. Both games could, and hopefully for us fans will, come down to a handful of possessions late.
These are my Final Four leans heading into Saturday night. Spreads may change before tip-off, but UConn +2.5 and Michigan moneyline are my leans. Even though Michigan is currently -1.5, I’m still going moneyline if it stays that way.
Sweet 16 + Elite 8 record: 4-3 ATS
Final Four leans: UConn +2.5, Michigan ML
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