The Sweet 16 gave us everything you could want from March — a couple statement wins, tight matchups with close finishes, and Hall of Fame coaches going at it. And also at least one pick I definitely liked more in my head than it looked on the court. Thanks Houston.
Now we’re down to the Elite 8, with each team looking to cut down that net. Here are the four Elite 8 matchups — and where I’m leaning against the spread heading into each one.
3 Illinois vs 9 Iowa
Lean: Iowa +6.5
Iowa is probably the closest thing we have left to a Cinderella in this field right now, and knocking off defending champion Florida proves they’re not here by accident.
These teams already met once this season, with Illinois winning at Iowa back in January. Obviously this is a different setting and a much bigger stage, but definitely worth mentioning.
Illinois is coming off what felt like a statement win against Houston — and they basically had to do it in a road environment. That’s the kind of performance that makes you nervous about stepping in front of them right now. Illinois has been hot all tournament too.
Still, with how confident Iowa has looked and the way they’ve handled pressure spots so far, I’ll take the extra 6.5 with them. I’m not as concerned with the January loss as this team has to be feeling good. I’m not fully convinced Iowa wins outright, but I like them to keep this one tight.
1 Arizona vs 2 Purdue
Lean: Purdue +6.5
In the West region we got a team in Purdue that opened the season No. 1 in the polls going against an Arizona team that spent roughly two months ranked No. 1 during the season.
Arizona is coming off one of the most impressive offensive performances of the tournament so far, dropping 109 points on Arkansas. When they’re playing at that pace and shooting with confidence, they’re tough to keep up with on the scoreboard.
Purdue survived Texas in a game that easily could’ve flipped late, but this is still a veteran roster that’s been in big spots all season.
So similar to the Illinois vs Iowa game, I’m unsure if Purdue wins this outright. But 6.5 seems like a good amount of points to get for a very good Purdue team. Arizona has to cool off a bit after dropping 109 points too… right?
1 Michigan vs 6 Tennessee
Lean: Michigan -6.5
Michigan has looked like a Final Four team basically all season, and nothing they’ve done in the tournament so far has changed that.
Tennessee deserves a ton of credit for knocking off Iowa State, and defensively they’re exactly the kind of team that can make games uncomfortable this time of year. They also lead the country in offensive rebounding, which is usually a huge advantage in March.
That said, Michigan has just been too consistent for too long for me to step in front of them right now. When a team has looked this complete on both ends of the floor all season, I’m usually hesitant to fade them unless the number forces me to. I’m leaning Michigan -6.5 here.
1 Duke vs 2 UConn
Lean: UConn +5.5
Similar to the West region, we have the top 2 seeds making the regional final in the East. First off, credit to Caleb Foster for getting back on the court just 19 days after foot surgery and immediately making an impact against St. John’s. He scored all 11 of his points in the second half and gave Duke a huge lift when they needed it.
From a matchup standpoint, this one looks like a defensive battle. Both teams rank inside the KenPom top 10 in defensive efficiency, which usually means long possessions, fewer easy looks, and a tighter game overall.
When it’s March and that’s the type of setup I see, I usually lean toward the team getting the points.
St. John’s just covered +6.5 against Duke, and I think UConn is the stronger team. That makes UConn +5.5 my lean here.
We’re officially at the point in the tournament where every possession starts to feel bigger. At this stage I’m usually less interested in picking winners and more interested in finding numbers that feel just a little too big. You gotta expect, and as a fan hope, for tighter matchups at this stage.
These are my leans heading into the Elite 8 matchups. If any of these numbers move before tip I might feel differently, but at these lines this is where I’m leaning right now. These are obviously just my opinions, not betting advice. Always gamble responsibly.
I went 2–1 against the spread in my Sweet 16 watchlist, so let’s see if the Elite 8 treats me just as well.
Sweet 16 record: 2-1 ATS
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